Weekly

Next week, the most important economic events in Poland will be the decision-making meeting of the Monetary Policy Council, which ends on Wednesday, and the conference of NBP Governor Adam Glapiński on Thursday. (...) Apart from that, the only release on the state of the Polish economy will be the November print of the manufacturing PMI (Monday). (...) Abroad, the most important release will be the report on the state of the US labour market in November, which will be published on Friday. (...)

Another shorter week is ahead of us - Monday is a market holiday not only in Poland, but also in the USA. The publication calendar is again light, but concise. In Poland we will get: data on the September balance of payments (Wednesday), preliminary estimate of GDP growth in the third quarter (Thursday), full data on October inflation (Friday) and perhaps also the results of the central budget for October. (...) However, the most important item of this set will be the publication on GDP growth. The market consensus according to Bloomberg is c. 3% y/y, according to Parkiet 2.9%, and the latest NBP projection assumes 2.6% y/y. We have decided to lower our forecast to 2.8% y/y (earlier we had it at 3.3% y/y) after a series of disappointing September data, which would correspond to a seasonally-adjusted change in GDP by c. 0.3% q/q. (...)