Weekly

Although the coming workweek will be shorter due to the Easter holidays, we are in for a strong dose of data from the Polish economy. On Tuesday, the stats office publishes data on industrial and construction production, the labour market, PPI inflation and business sentiment, as well as an announcement on the general government deficit and debt for 2021-2024. In the case of the industrial and construction data, we expect an improvement in the annual growth rate relative to February (...) Labour market data are likely to attract more attention than usual, as NBP President Adam Glapiński has cited wage growth as one of the main macroeconomic variables influencing the MPC's decisions in the coming months. Our forecast is higher than market consensus, but we do not assume that a reading in line with our expectations will deter MPC members from cutting rates in May.

The final week before Easter will see a moderate number of economic releases, but the atmosphere in the financial markets is likely to remain extremely heated as the US-China trade war is continuously escalating. 
In the domestic calendar, the headline releases are March CPI inflation data on Tuesday, core inflation on Wednesday, revised quarterly GDP data for 2023-24 on Thursday. There may also be information on March budget execution later in the week. Abroad, among other figures, inflation data in several European countries, US industrial production and retail sales, Chinese preliminary GDP reading for 1Q25. (...)