Weekly

The coming week is not going to be especially rich in new data releases - on the domestic calendar we have November's balance of balance of payments on Monday, December CPI inflation on Wednesday, core inflation on Thursday. Moreover the first MPC meeting of the year is on schedule, with the decision on Thursday and president Glapiński's speech on Friday at 15:00. Abroad we will get to see inflation figures from the Czech Republic, Hungary, euro zone, USA and the first estimate of 2024 GDP in Germany. We do not expect domestic data to bring new significant impulses for the market. After the big surprise of the current account surplus in October, for November we and the consensus are betting on a balance only marginally above zero. The final CPI data will probably confirm the preliminary result of 4.8% y/y. From the markets’ point of view, it will be more interesting to hear the NBP president’s tone at his conference on Friday. (...)

We are entering a holiday period, when the number of new publications will be very limited, just like the financial markets’ activity and liquidity. The local calendar will include data on the November money supply and the new GUS’s Statistical Bulletin on Monday, and the next important data will be released just after the New Year: manufacturing PMI on January 2nd, and flash CPI inflation for December on January 3rd. Abroad the calendar is also relatively light, including data from the US on consumer confidence, home sales, durable goods orders; and at the start of January, preliminary PMI indexes for many countries will be released. (...)