Weekly

Next week will bring, among others, a preliminary estimate of the Polish economy's performance in 1Q24, full data on April inflation and the March balance of payments. In our view, GDP accelerated in 1Q24 to 1.8% y/y (in line with the market consensus) from 1.0% in 4Q23 is on track to grow by around 3% in the entire year. Although March's economic activity data came in below market expectations, we do not see this as sufficient reason to undermine the economic rebound in 1Q24. (...)

The coming week in Poland will be marked by a holiday break (May 1st and 3rd are public holidays), barbecues and reduced financial market liquidity. This does not mean that the economic calendar is completely empty. Locally, there will be two important publications: flash April CPI inflation on Tuesday and manufacturing PMI index on Thursday. In addition, on Tuesday, the government is expected to approve the Multiannual Financial Plan of the State with the forecast of public finances for 2024-27. Abroad, the list of events is longer: in Europe we will see, inter alia, ESI indices, first GDP estimates for Q1 in selected countries, preliminary data on April inflation, manufacturing PMIs; in the USA, the focus will be on Wednesday's FOMC decision and Friday's labour market data. On Thursday, the Czech central bank will decide on interest rates (...)