Weekly

At the beginning of the new week, the results of the first round of parliamentary elections in France will probably be the key topic. Polls indicate that the far-right National Rally (RN) enjoys the greatest (and growing) support, followed by the united left bloc (NFP), and only third is the liberal coalition (ENS) built around Macron's party. The result of the election and its interpretation by the markets may be a key determinant of market sentiment at the beginning of the week. Elevated volatility is quite likely, although it is worth remembering that the actual shape of the parliament and the government will be determined only by the results of the second round of elections a week later. (...) In Poland, the main economic events after the week will be: the PMI index on Monday, the MPC decision on Wednesday and the press conference of the NBP Governor Adam Glapiński on Thursday. (...)

In the coming week, we will see another set of data for May. On Monday, construction production, retail sales and money supply are due. On Tuesday unemployment and detailed information from the GUS Statistical Bulletin will be released. Surprises in industrial production often go hand in hand with surprises in other activity data so it is worth preparing for poor readings from construction and retail trade sectors (our forecasts are slightly below consensus, so probably on the right side). The stats office has also scheduled a revision of quarterly GDP data for 2019-2023 for Thursday.
On Friday, the stats office releases the flash estimate of June CPI inflation.  (...)