Economic Analysis

In today's Eyeopener:

- No major data releases today
- Core inflation increased to 2.7% y/y in March from 2.5% y/y in February
- Following the GDP data revision, growth in 2025 is still at 3.6%
- Stabilisation in the FX market, minor changes in the bond market

Key March economic activity data are coming this week. On Tuesday, we will see wages and employment, as well as industrial and construction output and producer prices. The picture will be completed retail sales and money supply data on Thursday, GUS Statistical Bulletin on Friday. March was the first month of the year in which weather conditions allowed producers and construction companies to operate normally, so we expect a clear rebound in their performance (...)

The revision of GDP data raised the 2024 growth rate to 3.2% from 3.0%, while the full‑year 2025 outcome remained unchanged at 3.6%, although the estimate for 4Q was slightly revised up by 0.1 pp to 4.1% y/y. The upward revision stemmed primarily from a higher estimate of investment – according to Statistics Poland, investment increased by 0.4% in 2024 and by 4.4% in 2025 (previously estimated at ‑0.9% and 4.3%, respectively). In addition to investment, inventories also contributed to the upward revision, while net exports were revised downwards in most periods, deepening their negative impact on GDP.
These changes do not materially affect our existing economic growth forecasts.

In mid‑March we published a report outlining three scenarios for the development of the economic outlook, depending on how prolonged and severe the commodity shock triggered by the war in Iran would prove to be. Three weeks later, we can conclude that the first scenario, which we had then considered the most likely, turned out to be overly optimistic, and the baseline scenario is shifting towards scenario number two: the conflict does not escalate further, but prolonged uncertainty and the damage already inflicted on infrastructure mean that commodity prices may remain at least 15–20% above their February levels for most of this year. Recent reports about an agreement on a two‑week ceasefire are interpreted by us as a clear signal that neither the US nor Iran is interested in further escalation or a prolongation of the war. (…)