Economic Analysis

In today's Eyeopener:

- Today flash PMIs from Germany and the euro area, Michigan index in the USA
- December data from the Polish economy beat expectations
- EURPLN the lowest in a month, market rates increased a bit

December statistics for industrial and construction output and corporate wages surprised strongly to the upside, indicating that the domestic economy ended last year in a high gear. How high – this should be clarified by the preliminary GDP estimate for the whole of 2025, which the Polish stats office will publish next Friday, 30 January, at a press conference under the charming title “Data on Poland in 2025 – facts, myths, reality”. Our forecast, similar to market consensus, assumes full‑year growth of 3.6%. Such an annual result would be consistent with GDP growth in 4Q25 in the 3.8–4.1% y/y range. However, we will only learn the 4Q25 data in February. (...)

December data on industrial and construction output turned out to be much better than forecast, indicating that the condition of the Polish economy at the turn of the year was very strong despite the still challenging international environment. Wage growth in the enterprise sector also surprised significantly on the upside (…) The much better‑than‑expected December numbers significantly reduce, in our view, the arguments for resuming interest rate cuts at the upcoming meeting of the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) in early February. Ultimately, MPC decisions will likely be determined by inflation developments, but at the upcoming meeting the Council will not yet have new data on this matter. We continue to expect two more 25pp rate cuts this year: in March and May. Despite the much stronger‑than‑expected December production dynamics, we see a slight downside risk to our GDP growth estimate for 4Q25 at 3.9% y/y, due to weaker readings in previous months.
 

Recent positive data from the domestic economy have sparked a wave of optimism about the prospects for economic growth in Poland. For us, this optimism is nothing new. We wrote about the fact that the coming years would be marked by strong investment growth and that 2026 would be better than 2025 in terms of GDP growth before it became trendy. At the same time, it is worth bearing in mind that these will not be easy years, free from uncertainty, and that the acceleration in domestic growth will be moderate rather than spectacular. In our opinion, the increasingly popular slogan ‘GDP at four plus’ will materialise more likely in the form of nominal GDP level exceeding PLN 4 trillion, rather than in the form of average real GDP growth for the entire year above 4% (although this may not be far off) (...)

In September's Rates and FX Outlook:
 

• Poland’s GDP growth failed to accelerate in 2Q16, with investments surprising negatively (-4.9% y/y), and we think that the second half of the year will see no significant improvement in economic growth. Although private consumption is likely to gain strength in the coming quarters, supported by solid labour income and the new child subsidies, it may take time until investments recover, and the positive impact of net exports will be hard to maintain (export growth may decelerate and imports accelerate). We expect a more significant investment pick-up next year, but by then the impact of the 500+ child benefit programme on consumption will be dissipating. Therefore, we forecast that GDP will grow 3.1% in 2016 and 2.9% in 2017.