MACROscope

It is now three months since the re-election of Donald Trump as US president, and uncertainty about the effects of changes in US policy on the global economy and global security has not decreased significantly, but rather has entered a new level. It has become apparent that even decisions already announced and taken (as in the case of the imposition of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico) tell us little about what will actually happen, as they can be put on hold or reversed in an instant. On one hand, it makes economic forecasting still difficult; on the other hand, it leaves open the possibility that, for example, fears of a sharp turn towards trade protectionism that could harm the global economy will ultimately materialise only to a limited extent (...)

Based on the currently available data, we can say that the economic scenario that materialized in 2024 was close to the one we sketched out a year ago. Despite the unfavourable external environment and the protracted downturn in the euro area, the domestic economy returned to GDP growth of around . 3%, mainly due to robust domestic demand, including consumption, supported by rapidly rising household incomes. The results for the third quarter were a big disappointment, but we consider them a temporary disruption of the trend, not a signal of its fundamental change. We are still not able to explain exactly what was behind the sudden slump in demand in 3Q, but we do not share the opinion about the "death of the consumer" (if anything, it was only resting) and in the coming quarters we expect the pace of economic growth to return above 3%, with further significant contribution from domestic consumption.  (...)